Opinion: The Dangers of Quebec Secession

Quebec has a unique place in Canada, existing as the only majority French-speaking province in the nation. Throughout its history as a part of the Dominion, this exclusive status has caused plenty of division within the province as the Quebecois attempt to maintain their distinctive identity.

In 1995, residents of Quebec had a referendum to decide whether or not Quebec should declare national sovereignty and separate from Canada. Fortunately, the secessionists narrowly lost on a razor-thin margin of 1.16%, with a record 93.52% voter turnout, according to the Canadian Encyclopedia. As the “odd one out” in Canada, Quebec has sought independence many times in Canada’s history but has either failed referendums or been deterred by cash transfers from the federal government. However, if the separatist movement manages to succeed eventually, separation would undermine the political landscape of Canada, while also debilitating economic prosperity. Quebec seceding from Canada spells certain political and economic doom for the entire Canadian federation.

Quebec becoming independent would result in a massive political power vacuum within Canada. This is for two primary reasons. First of all, the Bloc Quebecois party is the rallying point of the Quebecois independence cry, which means they would have a huge say in the policies of their new sovereign province. The Bloc Quebecois was formed for the sole purpose of transforming Quebec into a distinct society, in order to give Quebec more say in constitutional changes. If independence is achieved, the Bloc Quebecois gains too much power. They will potentially be able to drive out the Liberal and Conservative Party since Quebec would no longer be a part of Canada’s multi-party system. Tangibly, less competition means that the Bloc Quebecois will be left without the checks and balances aspect from other parties. For Quebec constituents who are not in favour of secession, or prefer different ideologies, their voices may be quelled or completely dismissed. When the Bloc is able to stamp out small, newer parties, the very principles of democracy that all Western Liberal Democracies care deeply about will be dethroned by Quebec separation.

Secession would be disastrous for Canada’s wealth, given the fact that Quebec is an important part of Canada’s trade chain. Primarily, Quebec is the second most populous province in Canada, and losing upwards of 8 million people would deal a devastating blow to Canada’s job force. Not only would Canada lose workers, but the maritime provinces would be separated, which would strain trade and economic activity as there would now be a sovereign nation in between its logistic chains. This geographical break within Canada would allow Quebec to charge ludicrous fees for shipping as they would possess a monopoly on ground transport. In such a world, they would likely be exploitative not only due to contempt for the Anglophones but also because the only viable alternatives would be transporting items by ship through the Northwest Passage or using air transport. Furthermore, the valuable Port of Montreal would shift hands to the new Quebec government’s control, which is integral to Canada’s supply chain. CanadaSailings reports that “the Port of Montreal is at the centre of a fully integrated rail, road and pipeline network. Ships, trains and trucks converge at a single location, minimizing cargo transit times. The ability to move goods farther inland by vessel provides shippers with advantages that are both economical and environmental.” Moreover, not only is the Port of Montreal the second largest port in Canada, but it also lies on the closest direct trade route to important economic zones across the world including North America, Europe, and Africa. Trade with other countries would be severely limited if suddenly the Port of Montreal was no longer Canada’s to control. This would whittle the largest ports in Canada to those in BC, the Port of Vancouver and the Port of Prince Rupert. Hence, most of the cheap and rapid trade would be limited to the Pacific region. Even worse, a similar thing could happen to Canada like what happened to former Soviet states. Economic disintegration caused internal political turmoil in the Soviet republics, like what had occurred in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This possibility is exacerbated by the Maverick Party which is based in Alberta. Supporters of this party and other Albertans bear the brunt of the income tax through their oil, contributing 6.1% more tax money than the average across Canada, according to the Fraser Institute. They support a plan called WEXIT which wants BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the territories to agree to secede from Canada. If Quebec secedes, it will definitely lead to economic troubles for Canada, but it also has the additional possibility of creating a snowball effect that causes the Canadian federation to fall apart.

Statistics and logic all point towards Quebec separation resulting in political and economic doom for Canada. It is in everyone’s best interest to reduce Quebecois hostility towards Canada in order to preserve the Canadian Federation. Both Quebec and the rest of Canada benefit from a united country.